The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% during its February 2026 meeting, signaling a pause in the aggressive easing cycle that began in late 2024. With annual inflation tracking at 3.1% and expected to return to the 2% target midpoint within the next 12 months, the Monetary Policy Committee has adopted a "wait and see" approach. For Kiwi households and investors, the focus now shifts to the next scheduled announcement on 8 April 2026, where the central bank will evaluate if the current stimulatory environment is sufficient to support a strengthening economic recovery without reigniting price pressures.
Scheduled OCR announcement dates for 2026
The RBNZ makes interest rate decisions seven times a year in 2026, though this frequency is set to increase to eight meetings starting in 2027 to align with international peers. Each meeting is a critical juncture for the New Zealand economy, as the Committee reviews the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), employment data, and global economic conditions. While the February 18 meeting was accompanied by a full Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), the upcoming April review will be a shorter "Monetary Policy Review" focused primarily on recent data surprises.
- 8 April 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
- 27 May 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision (includes full economic forecasts).
- 8 July 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
- 2 September 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision.
- 28 October 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
- 9 December 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision.
8 April 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
27 May 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision (includes full economic forecasts).
8 July 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
2 September 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision.
28 October 2026: Monetary Policy Review and OCR decision.
9 December 2026: Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision.
2026 RBNZ decision calendar and type
| Date | Announcement Type | Forecasts Included |
| 18 February 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement | Yes |
| 8 April 2026 | Monetary Policy Review | No |
| 27 May 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement | Yes |
| 8 July 2026 | Monetary Policy Review | No |
| 2 September 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement | Yes |
| 28 October 2026 | Monetary Policy Review | No |
| 9 December 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement | Yes |
What to expect from the April 2026 review
Market consensus suggests the RBNZ will likely keep the OCR on hold at 2.25% during the April 8 announcement. After cutting the rate nine times since August 2024, the central bank has officially moved into a "stimulatory" environment where interest rates are below the estimated neutral point of 3.00%. The Committee’s primary goal now is to observe how past cuts continue to flow through the economy, particularly in sectors like housing and retail where activity is starting to pick up. If inflation continues to decline toward the 2% target as projected, rates are expected to remain flat for much of 2026.
- Steady Rates: Most economists from major banks like ANZ, Westpac, and ASB expect the OCR to remain at 2.25% through most of 2026.
- Data Monitoring: The April decision will focus heavily on the Q1 2026 CPI data and retail trade volumes.
- Balanced Risks: The RBNZ views risks as balanced, with caution about weak household spending countered by stronger export prices for dairy and meat.
- Neutral Return: A slow transition back toward a 3.00% neutral rate is not expected to begin until late 2026 or early 2027.
Steady Rates: Most economists from major banks like ANZ, Westpac, and ASB expect the OCR to remain at 2.25% through most of 2026.
Data Monitoring: The April decision will focus heavily on the Q1 2026 CPI data and retail trade volumes.
Balanced Risks: The RBNZ views risks as balanced, with caution about weak household spending countered by stronger export prices for dairy and meat.
Neutral Return: A slow transition back toward a 3.00% neutral rate is not expected to begin until late 2026 or early 2027.
Forecasted OCR path from major NZ banks
| Bank Forecaster | April 2026 | June 2026 | September 2026 | December 2026 |
| ANZ | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| Westpac | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| ASB | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| Kiwibank | 2.20% | 2.15% | 2.20% | 2.50% |
Inflation and the 2% target midpoint
The RBNZ’s current stance is driven by the conviction that inflation will return to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2026. While headline inflation sat at 3.1% at the end of 2025—largely due to volatile items like food and international airfares—core inflation measures are already within the 1% to 3% target band. The Committee noted that high prices for administered services, such as council rates (up 8.8%) and electricity (up 12.2%), have made domestic inflation fall more slowly than expected. However, falling import prices and a stronger New Zealand dollar are expected to help pull the overall rate down in the coming months.
- Target Band: RBNZ aims to keep inflation between 1% and 3%, with a focus on the 2% midpoint.
- Tradables Inflation: Falling import prices and a stronger NZD are dampening the cost of overseas goods.
- Non-Tradables: Domestic costs like council rates and energy remain "sticky" and are the primary upward pressure on inflation.
- Core Inflation: Measures that look through volatile price swings are already comfortably within the target range.
Target Band: RBNZ aims to keep inflation between 1% and 3%, with a focus on the 2% midpoint.
Tradables Inflation: Falling import prices and a stronger NZD are dampening the cost of overseas goods.
Non-Tradables: Domestic costs like council rates and energy remain "sticky" and are the primary upward pressure on inflation.
Core Inflation: Measures that look through volatile price swings are already comfortably within the target range.
The labor market and employment trends
A key indicator the RBNZ is watching in 2026 is the unemployment rate, which rose to 5.4% at the start of the year. While this reflects a "weak" labor market, the central bank expects unemployment to decline as the economic recovery gains momentum and businesses begin to hire more workers. The Monetary Policy Committee believes that spare capacity in the labor market will continue to lead to modest wage growth, which is a necessary condition for keeping inflation low and stable over the long term. Read more about labor trends in the New Zealand Economy Wikipedia page.
- Unemployment Rate: Currently at 5.4%, but expected to trend lower by late 2026.
- Hiring Intentions: Business surveys like the QSBO suggest firms are becoming more optimistic about taking on new staff.
- Wage Growth: Modest increases in wages are supporting the disinflationary process.
- Labor Supply: Strong net migration has increased the number of people looking for work, matching the growth in available jobs.
Unemployment Rate: Currently at 5.4%, but expected to trend lower by late 2026.
Hiring Intentions: Business surveys like the QSBO suggest firms are becoming more optimistic about taking on new staff.
Wage Growth: Modest increases in wages are supporting the disinflationary process.
Labor Supply: Strong net migration has increased the number of people looking for work, matching the growth in available jobs.
Labor market projections for 2026
| Indicator | Early 2026 Status | Late 2026 Forecast | Impact on OCR |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.4% | Declining | Allows OCR to stay low. |
| Wage Growth | Modest | Stable | Reduces risk of wage-price spiral. |
| Job Vacancies | Increasing | Higher | Supports household spending recovery. |
Impact on mortgage rates and borrowers
For Kiwi homeowners, the RBNZ's decision to hold the OCR at 2.25% means that the period of rapid mortgage rate falls has likely come to an end. While the average mortgage rate in New Zealand has declined to approximately 5.1%, the central bank expects further downward adjustments to be minimal. Wholesale interest rates for terms longer than 12 months have already started to increase as markets begin to price in the eventual return to a neutral OCR. Most advisors now suggest that borrowers consider spreading their risk across different fixed terms rather than waiting for significant further drops.
- Current Average: The flow of new mortgage borrowing is currently priced at an average of 5.1%.
- Term Shifts: There has been a substantial increase in borrowers choosing 1–2 year fixed terms since late 2025.
- Wholesale Pressure: Global interest rate increases are putting upward pressure on longer-term fixed rates in NZ.
- One-Year Target: Analysts expect one-year fixed rates to settle around 5.00% once the OCR eventually returns to 3.00%.
Current Average: The flow of new mortgage borrowing is currently priced at an average of 5.1%.
Term Shifts: There has been a substantial increase in borrowers choosing 1–2 year fixed terms since late 2025.
Wholesale Pressure: Global interest rate increases are putting upward pressure on longer-term fixed rates in NZ.
One-Year Target: Analysts expect one-year fixed rates to settle around 5.00% once the OCR eventually returns to 3.00%.
The transition to more frequent meetings in 2027
To improve its responsiveness to shifting economic conditions, the RBNZ has confirmed it will move from seven to eight scheduled OCR decisions per year starting in 2027. This change coincides with Statistics New Zealand’s intention to begin releasing monthly CPI data, providing the Monetary Policy Committee with more timely information on price movements. By increasing the frequency of meetings, the RBNZ aims to reduce the "summer gap" between December and February, which has historically been perceived as too long for effective policy management in a volatile global environment.
- Frequency Change: Shifting from 7 to 8 scheduled decisions annually.
- Data Alignment: New schedule will better align with monthly CPI releases starting in 2027.
- Summer Gap: The revised schedule for 2026/2027 already seeks to shorten the time between the final meeting of one year and the first of the next.
- Agility: More frequent meetings bring the RBNZ in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England.
Frequency Change: Shifting from 7 to 8 scheduled decisions annually.
Data Alignment: New schedule will better align with monthly CPI releases starting in 2027.
Summer Gap: The revised schedule for 2026/2027 already seeks to shorten the time between the final meeting of one year and the first of the next.
Agility: More frequent meetings bring the RBNZ in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England.
Upcoming decision dates (August 2026 – February 2027)
| Date | Announcement Type |
| 2 September 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement |
| 28 October 2026 | Monetary Policy Review |
| 9 December 2026 | Monetary Policy Statement |
| 10 February 2027 | Monetary Policy Review |
Global economic influences on the OCR
While domestic data is paramount, the RBNZ remains highly sensitive to global economic uncertainty. Factors such as the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil prices (potentially reaching US$150 per barrel) could lead to diverging monetary policies worldwide. If global commodity prices spike, the RBNZ may be forced to raise rates earlier than expected to anchor inflation expectations. Conversely, a weakening US dollar has recently contributed to an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar, which helps lower the cost of imports and supports the RBNZ’s disinflationary efforts.
- Commodity Shocks: High oil prices remain a significant "upside" risk to inflation forecasts.
- Exchange Rate: A stronger NZD helps lower tradables inflation by making imports cheaper.
- International Peers: Hawkish turns by other major central banks often put upward pressure on NZ wholesale rates.
- Export Income: High prices for dairy and meat exports are providing a buffer for the NZ economy.
Commodity Shocks: High oil prices remain a significant "upside" risk to inflation forecasts.
Exchange Rate: A stronger NZD helps lower tradables inflation by making imports cheaper.
International Peers: Hawkish turns by other major central banks often put upward pressure on NZ wholesale rates.
Export Income: High prices for dairy and meat exports are providing a buffer for the NZ economy.
Housing market response to the 2026 OCR hold
The New Zealand housing market is expected to show only modest growth in 2026 following the RBNZ's signal that the rate-cutting cycle has likely ended. While lower interest rates have improved debt-servicing pressure and eased financial stress for many households, a large increase in the number of properties for sale is keeping price growth in check. House prices are projected to grow at roughly the same rate as household incomes over the medium term, avoiding the rapid surges seen in previous cycles. Investors are slowly returning to the market, encouraged by changes to interest deductibility and the Brightline test.
- Price Growth: Forecasts suggest modest gains of 2–3% over 2026.
- Inventory Levels: The number of homes available for sale is at a decade high, limiting price momentum.
- Financial Stress: Non-performing housing loans have declined as interest rate relief takes effect.
- Investment Climate: Easing LVR and DTI restrictions are providing more flexibility for borrowers.
Price Growth: Forecasts suggest modest gains of 2–3% over 2026.
Inventory Levels: The number of homes available for sale is at a decade high, limiting price momentum.
Financial Stress: Non-performing housing loans have declined as interest rate relief takes effect.
Investment Climate: Easing LVR and DTI restrictions are providing more flexibility for borrowers.
Preparing for the next interest rate cycle
As the OCR settles at what many believe is the bottom of the cycle, Kiwi businesses and households are being advised to plan for a more stable interest rate environment. The RBNZ’s commitment to keeping the OCR at 2.25% for "some time" provides a window of opportunity to restructure debt or invest in growth while borrowing costs are at their lowest levels in four years. However, the long-term projections of a return to a 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate by 2027–2028 serve as a reminder that the current stimulatory rates are a temporary measure to support recovery.
- Refinancing: Now may be an opportune time to review fixed-rate loans due to expire soon.
- Long-Term Planning: Low rates may not last once the output gap in the economy is fully closed.
- Investment Intentions: Businesses are encouraged to use this accommodative period to invest in productivity.
- Risk Management: Spreading mortgage risk across multiple terms remains the consensus advice from financial experts.
Refinancing: Now may be an opportune time to review fixed-rate loans due to expire soon.
Long-Term Planning: Low rates may not last once the output gap in the economy is fully closed.
Investment Intentions: Businesses are encouraged to use this accommodative period to invest in productivity.
Risk Management: Spreading mortgage risk across multiple terms remains the consensus advice from financial experts.
Final thoughts
The RBNZ’s decision to hold the OCR at 2.25% marks a strategic shift from aggressive easing to a period of careful observation. With the next announcement on 8 April 2026, the central bank will look for confirmation that inflation is indeed on a sustainable path back to 2% and that the labor market is beginning to heal. While borrowers have enjoyed significant relief over the past 18 months, the focus is now on economic stability and a gradual normalization of rates toward the end of the year. Staying informed on these dates and the accompanying data will be crucial for any Kiwi making significant financial decisions in 2026.
FAQ
When is the next OCR announcement in New Zealand?
The next OCR announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, 8 April 2026, at 2:00 pm.
What is the current Official Cash Rate in NZ?
The OCR currently sits at 2.25%, following the RBNZ’s decision to hold the rate on 18 February 2026.
Will interest rates go lower in 2026?
Most economists believe the OCR has reached the bottom of the current cycle, though some like Kiwibank suggest there is a small chance of one final cut to 2.15% if data surprises on the downside.
What is a Monetary Policy Statement (MPS)?
An MPS is a comprehensive quarterly report released by the RBNZ (February, May, August, November) that includes the OCR decision along with full economic forecasts and a media conference.
Why did the RBNZ stop cutting rates in February 2026?
The Committee held the rate because inflation (3.1%) was still slightly above the target range, and they wanted to ensure it would fall sustainably to the 2% midpoint while supporting a recovering economy.
How does the OCR affect my mortgage?
The OCR influences wholesale interest rates, which banks use to set their mortgage rates. A lower OCR generally leads to lower floating and short-term fixed mortgage rates.
What is the "neutral" OCR?
The neutral OCR is the rate at which monetary policy is neither stimulatory nor contractionary. In 2026, the RBNZ estimates this point to be around 3.00%.
When will the OCR start to go up again?
Market consensus is that the RBNZ will begin a slow return to higher, more neutral levels either late in 2026 or during the first half of 2027.
Why is the RBNZ moving to eight meetings in 2027?
The shift to eight meetings per year aims to provide more policy agility and align with the release of new monthly CPI data from Statistics New Zealand.
Is NZ currently in a recession in 2026?
No, the economy is currently in a recovery phase, with GDP expanding and activity picking up in sectors like dairy, meat exports, and business investment.
